Fed Cut Already Priced In, Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Bullish for Crypto: Nansen

 Crypto markets are closely monitoring today’s Federal Reserve decision, but analysts say the rate cut itself is no longer the headline. According to Nansen Principal Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere, the widely expected reduction is already factored into asset prices—leaving Powell’s tone and the upcoming 2026 leadership change as the real market catalysts.

Fed Cut Already Priced In, Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Bullish for Crypto

In a note shared with Cryptonews.com, Barthere stated that investors should focus less on the cut and more on how the Fed outlines its policy direction heading into next year.

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Fed Poised for Rate Cut, But Signals Matter More

Barthere expects the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point cut, aligned with overwhelming market predictions. However, she sees policymakers reinforcing a cautious, data-driven strategy due to the two-month lag in labor-market data, which makes unemployment and wage trends harder to gauge in real time.

“The Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance,” Barthere said, adding that she expects the terminal rate to stay near 3.0%, pointing to a divided committee on how fast to loosen policy.

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2026 Leadership Shift Seen as Bullish for Crypto

Beyond today’s announcement, Barthere highlighted the delayed confirmation of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, now expected in early 2026. She suggested that a leadership move toward a more growth-friendly and market-supportive stance could boost expectations of deeper cuts next year.

Such a shift could also spell bullish momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector, where capital inflows respond sharply to liquidity changes.

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Bitcoin Faces a Key Technical Level

Despite upbeat macro speculation, Barthere warns that Bitcoin remains stuck under a critical resistance zone. She points to the $91,000 region, where the 20-day EMA meets a long-term downtrend that started in October.

Barthere expects BTC to consolidate around this level post-FOMC instead of pushing immediately toward a breakout.

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Fed Meets Amid Turbulent U.S. Economic Data

The meeting comes at the end of a volatile year for the U.S. economy, marked by:

• Weakening job growth

• Rising corporate layoffs

• Inflation pressure linked to Trump’s tariff policies

• Limited fresh data due to the government shutdown

Even with uncertainty, economists nearly unanimously anticipate another cut. The CME FedWatch Tool places the odds of a 25-bps move at 89.4%, which would mark the third consecutive cut, pushing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4%.

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Fed Liquidity Boost Could Send Bitcoin “Sharply Higher”

Bitcoin’s recent surge above $92,000 has sparked renewed optimism. Analysts at the London Crypto Club predict that the Fed could trigger a larger rally than markets expect, especially if policymakers quietly inject liquidity.

In a recent note, analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills argue the Fed may pursue a creative bond-purchase strategy rather than traditional quantitative easing.

“We’re moving into a continued rate-cutting cycle accompanied by balance sheet expansion,” they wrote, suggesting the Fed may “monetise the deficit” by effectively turning the money printers back on.

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On-Chain Metrics Point to Growing Demand

Meanwhile, on-chain activity is signaling a potential market shift. An indicator known as “liveliness”—which tracks movement among long-term holders—has begun rising, even while prices cool. Analysts interpret this as dormant Bitcoin moving back into circulation, often a signal of renewed conviction among seasoned investors.

Last week, Bitfinex analysts reported signs of “seller exhaustion” after short-term holders exited during a steep deleveraging phase, allowing stronger hands to re-enter the market.

With the rate cut already priced in, crypto markets are looking beyond today’s decision. The key variables now are:

• Powell’s messaging on future easing

• Incoming Fed leadership in 2026

• Potential liquidity expansion

If policymakers lean dovish and the Fed quietly opens liquidity channels, analysts believe Bitcoin could be positioned for a sharp bullish breakout early next year.